Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Sorryloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
No Sorry
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 5 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
LastHero- · 4 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
LastHero- · 3 games
Dark Willow
y0nd · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
434 picks · 270 bans
Queen of Pain
387 picks · 497 bans
Weaver
351 picks · 496 bans
Mars
349 picks · 490 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 480 bans
Wraith King
251 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
248 picks · 360 bans
Grimstroke
246 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% AS Monaco Gambit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:5
AS Monaco Gambit 53%No Sorry 47%
The model gave 53% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by No Sorry in 37:31.
Game 2prediction missed26:15
AS Monaco Gambit 53%No Sorry 47%
The model gave 53% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by No Sorry in 27:07.
Game 3prediction missed9:26
AS Monaco Gambit 53%No Sorry 47%
The model gave 53% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by No Sorry in 30:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 53%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3