LiXO eSports vs Natus Vincere Junior — prediction EPLS 35 · Dota 2

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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3

result vs prediction

LiXO eSportswin 2:0

series probability

55%45%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LiXO eSports

No games played over 6 months.

Natus Vincere Junior

Ursaoften banned

rubikon155 · 12 games

17%

Snapfire

Gothic- · 11 games

27%

Jakirooften banned

Hyugadoto · 10 games

10%

Spirit Breaker

Gothic- · 10 games

20%

Disruptor

Hyugadoto · 9 games

11%

Dragon Knightoften banned

gbc · 9 games

Hoodwink

Gothic- · 9 games

11%

Tinyoften banned

Gothic- · 9 games

11%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

601 picks · 939 bans

50%

Tusk

488 picks · 434 bans

47%

Tiny

464 picks · 506 bans

49%

Warlock

437 picks · 285 bans

48%

Shadow Demon

430 picks · 1051 bans

55%

Centaur Warrunner

415 picks · 589 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

392 picks · 677 bans

59%

Mars

390 picks · 572 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 12%

Hero pool strength66% LiXO eSports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total55% LiXO eSports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct40:12

LiXO eSports 54%Natus Vincere Junior 46%

The model gave 54% on LiXO eSports — the game was taken by LiXO eSports in 36:03.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo