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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 12 games
83%
Io
Iooften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YapzOr · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
YapzOr · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
YapzOr · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 8 games
88%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyersignature
SumaiL · 8 games
75%

Tundra Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 15 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 15 games
80%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 13 games
62%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
77%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
58%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 12 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
434 picks · 269 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
387 picks · 496 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
351 picks · 496 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 490 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
282 picks · 479 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
251 picks · 336 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
247 picks · 359 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
246 picks · 173 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:23
Team Secret 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
49% · 181 game43% · 96 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
Brewmastericeiceice
48% · 47 games47% · 123 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSumaiL
43% · 116 games59% · 104 games
TinyNine
Tiny
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPuppey
47% · 71 game55% · 102 games
IoSneyking
Io
Hoodwink
HoodwinkYapzOr
52% · 140 games57% · 130 games
Monkey KingSaksa
Monkey King
Game 2prediction correct7:24
Team Secret 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNisha
52% · 23 games43% · 131 game
LunaSkiter
Luna
Io
IoSumaiL
55% · 73 games57% · 47 games
Keeper of the LightNine
Keeper of the Light
Sand King
Sand Kingiceiceice
53% · 100 games57% · 32 games
Necrophos33
Necrophos
Omniknight
OmniknightPuppey
46% · 36 games50% · 118 games
HoodwinkSaksa
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireYapzOr
43% · 184 games50% · 88 games
AbaddonSneyking
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2