Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportsloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Interituswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Interitus
Centaur Warrunner
H1j4ck · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Rayuur · 6 games
Bane
DFlash · 4 games
Jakiro
DFlash · 4 games
Rubick
Amin · 4 games
Hoodwink
Amin · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
FCR · 3 games
Marsoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
436 picks · 269 bans
Queen of Pain
386 picks · 494 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 495 bans
Mars
348 picks · 491 bans
Kunkka
284 picks · 474 bans
Wraith King
251 picks · 335 bans
Death Prophet
246 picks · 349 bans
Grimstroke
244 picks · 172 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 22%
Hero pool strength53% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:35
SG e-sports 68%Interitus 32%
The model gave 68% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by Interitus in 35:17.
Game 2prediction missed45:24
SG e-sports 68%Interitus 32%
The model gave 68% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by Interitus in 46:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 68%
Series resultInteritus 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2