Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KBU.USwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
435 picks · 271 bans
Queen of Pain
386 picks · 494 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 494 bans
Mars
347 picks · 491 bans
Kunkka
284 picks · 473 bans
Wraith King
250 picks · 335 bans
Death Prophet
245 picks · 347 bans
Grimstroke
244 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:36
5ManMidas 39%KBU.US 61%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 34:54.
Game 2prediction correct39:28
5ManMidas 39%KBU.US 61%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 35:37.
Game 3prediction correct40:22
5ManMidas 39%KBU.US 61%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 39:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 61%
Series resultKBU.US 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3