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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UD Vessuwanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
17%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 5 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 4 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 4 games
50%

UD Vessuwan

Snapfire
Snapfire
Poloson · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jhocam · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 6 games
83%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Meracle · 6 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
438 picks · 273 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
390 picks · 499 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
354 picks · 496 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 491 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
287 picks · 473 bans
51%
Wraith King
Wraith King
249 picks · 335 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
245 picks · 340 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
244 picks · 456 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% UD Vessuwan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:10
TNC Predator 58%UD Vessuwan 42%
The model gave 58% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYoungGodLevi
53% · 138 games38% · 110 games
MorphlingKen
Morphling
Puck
PuckYowe
59% · 202 games45% · 143 games
Dragon KnightJG
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBok
61% · 80 games41% · 137 games
Sand KingRupido
Sand King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFebby
60% · 109 games43% · 139 games
GyrocopterTeehee
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction missed15:29
TNC Predator 54%UD Vessuwan 46%
The model gave 54% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingYoungGodLevi
54% · 159 games50% · 139 games
TinyKen
Tiny
Invoker
InvokerYowe
48% · 156 games43% · 194 games
Void SpiritJG
Void Spirit
Necrophos
NecrophosBok
61% · 41 game47% · 91 game
Dragon KnightRupido
Dragon Knight
Bane
BaneFebby
49% · 147 games52% · 79 games
Ancient ApparitionTeehee
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct27:30
TNC Predator 53%UD Vessuwan 47%
The model gave 53% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 48:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYoungGodLevi
50% · 107 games54% · 187 games
Monkey KingKen
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYowe
49% · 113 games56% · 13 games
HuskarJG
Huskar
Weaver
WeaverFebby
48% · 161 game47% · 90 games
Sand KingRupido
Sand King
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBok
42% · 36 games53% · 127 games
Ogre MagiTeehee
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 58%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3