Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 10 games
Marssignature
Valquiria · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Jupiter · 10 games
Snapfire
Jupiter · 9 games
Bane
Nuages · 6 games
Lion
Jupiter · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 6 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Nuages · 6 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
439 picks · 272 bans
Queen of Pain
390 picks · 499 bans
Weaver
352 picks · 501 bans
Mars
346 picks · 487 bans
Kunkka
289 picks · 471 bans
Wraith King
249 picks · 334 bans
Spirit Breaker
245 picks · 459 bans
Death Prophet
242 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:22
Infinity Esports 28%beastcoast 72%
The model gave 72% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 30:25.
Game 2prediction correct20:35
Infinity Esports 28%beastcoast 72%
The model gave 72% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 37:54.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 72%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2