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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team MagMaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Bane
Bane
zzq · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 9 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 7 games
86%
Weaver
Weaversignature
zzq · 6 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
shiro · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 5 games
60%

Team MagMa

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
440 picks · 277 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
395 picks · 502 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
357 picks · 511 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 492 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
287 picks · 475 bans
51%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
251 picks · 469 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
251 picks · 336 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
242 picks · 327 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% EHOME
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:32
EHOME 47%Team MagMa 53%
The model gave 53% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 38:35.
Game 2prediction missed26:10
EHOME 47%Team MagMa 53%
The model gave 53% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by EHOME in 29:07.
Game 3prediction missed35:13
EHOME 47%Team MagMa 53%
The model gave 53% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by EHOME in 35:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 53%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3