?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
CatYou · 4 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
CatYou · 4 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Molasses · 3 games
0%

Xtreme Gaming

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 11 games
73%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
70%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Another · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Another · 9 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 8 games
88%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 277 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
395 picks · 502 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
357 picks · 511 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 491 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
286 picks · 475 bans
51%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
252 picks · 470 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
249 picks · 337 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
242 picks · 167 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength64% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:24
LBZS 29%Xtreme Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperShanks
51% · 96 games49% · 95 games
Wraith Kinglou
Wraith King
Kunkka
KunkkaMolasses
48% · 306 games43% · 127 games
Queen of PainPaparazi
Queen of Pain
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCatYou
46% · 99 games48% · 52 games
Dragon KnightELeVeN
Dragon Knight
64% · 108 games
Death ProphetPyw
Death Prophet
55% · 119 games
BaneDy
Bane
Game 2prediction correct9:16
LBZS 31%Xtreme Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaShanks
55% · 222 games50% · 118 games
Dragon KnightELeVeN
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaMolasses
52% · 144 games48% · 155 games
Wraith Kinglou
Wraith King
Mirana
MiranaCatYou
54% · 193 games45% · 19 games
NecrophosPaparazi
Necrophos
44% · 133 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
45% · 134 games
AbaddonDy
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 81%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2