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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Weaver
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 21 game
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 19 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
SkyLark · 15 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
57%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nefrit · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
62%

Gaimin Gladiators

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 14 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 13 games
85%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 11 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
BOOM · 10 games
70%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
441 picks · 283 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
401 picks · 507 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
363 picks · 518 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 498 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
287 picks · 481 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
254 picks · 475 bans
51%
Wraith King
Wraith King
250 picks · 337 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
248 picks · 101 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
Brame 37%Gaimin Gladiators 63%
The model gave 63% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawThuG
51% · 190 games47% · 142 games
Tinydyrachyo
Tiny
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinFocus
56% · 236 games40% · 159 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
68% · 188 games43% · 250 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamandEsire
55% · 67 games41% · 138 games
WeavertOfu
Weaver
Chen
ChenSsaSpartan
61% · 25 games34% · 17 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct13:28
Brame 36%Gaimin Gladiators 64%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFocus
47% · 164 games50% · 258 games
Tinydyrachyo
Tiny
Mars
MarsSkyLark
49% · 382 games49% · 181 game
LeshracBOOM
Leshrac
Void Spirit
Void SpiritThuG
47% · 209 games49% · 134 games
Legion CommanderAce
Legion Commander
Mirana
MiranadEsire
56% · 241 game50% · 239 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Io
IoSsaSpartan
50% · 166 games52% · 350 games
BanetOfu
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 76%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2