Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marssignature
DarkMago · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 15 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 14 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Matthew · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 284 bans
Queen of Pain
401 picks · 507 bans
Weaver
362 picks · 523 bans
Mars
349 picks · 498 bans
Kunkka
287 picks · 478 bans
Spirit Breaker
257 picks · 477 bans
Wraith King
251 picks · 338 bans
Snapfire
247 picks · 102 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 47%
Hero pool strength61% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total84% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:20
Thunder Awaken 84%Hokori 16%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 43:45.
Game 2prediction correct33:14
Thunder Awaken 84%Hokori 16%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 34:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 84%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2