Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
447 picks · 295 bans
Queen of Pain
408 picks · 513 bans
Weaver
364 picks · 533 bans
Mars
355 picks · 498 bans
Kunkka
290 picks · 481 bans
Spirit Breaker
262 picks · 488 bans
Wraith King
251 picks · 341 bans
Snapfire
246 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:22
Balrogs 34%beastcoast 66%
The model gave 66% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 37:45.
Game 2prediction correct27:38
Balrogs 34%beastcoast 66%
The model gave 66% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:08.
Game 3prediction correct29:28
Balrogs 34%beastcoast 66%
The model gave 66% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:21.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 66%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3