Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportswin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ravensloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Ravens
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
452 picks · 298 bans
Queen of Pain
410 picks · 519 bans
Weaver
366 picks · 541 bans
Mars
359 picks · 498 bans
Kunkka
292 picks · 483 bans
Spirit Breaker
265 picks · 492 bans
Wraith King
253 picks · 341 bans
Snapfire
249 picks · 102 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 78%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:24
SG e-sports 37%Ravens 63%
The model gave 63% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 28:26.
Game 2prediction correct15:22
SG e-sports 37%Ravens 63%
The model gave 63% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 19:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 63%
Series resultSG e-sports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2