Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 25 games
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 12 games
Banesignature
Roddgeee · 11 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 11 games
Linasignature
Moon · 11 games
Miranasignature
Moon · 10 games
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
Bane
RR · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 10 games
Linaoften banned
Bob · 9 games
Batridersignature
Bob · 8 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
454 picks · 298 bans
Queen of Pain
412 picks · 519 bans
Weaver
370 picks · 543 bans
Mars
358 picks · 500 bans
Kunkka
292 picks · 484 bans
Spirit Breaker
267 picks · 496 bans
Wraith King
254 picks · 342 bans
Snapfire
248 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 36%
Hero pool strength61% Team SMG
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total60% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:16
Team SMG 48%Execration 52%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Team SMG in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMoon
TinyPalos
Queen of PainMidOne
PuckBob
IoAhFu
MarsTino-
Baneninjaboogie
HoodwinkShanks
52% · 206 games
Death ProphetRR
Game 2prediction missed39:29
Team SMG 49%Execration 51%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Team SMG in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyMidOne
MedusaPalos
LinaMoon
DawnbreakerTino-
Keeper of the LightAhFu
KunkkaBob
Baneninjaboogie
LionShanks
42% · 226 games
SnapfireRR
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 60%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2