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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 44 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 28 games
68%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 27 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 25 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 23 games
65%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
76%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 27 games
74%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 24 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 22 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 22 games
64%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 989 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 446 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
463 picks · 506 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
454 picks · 292 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 617 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
445 picks · 1073 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 585 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 690 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 7
Model total63% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:45
Team Liquid 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
48% · 401 game52% · 308 games
Shadow FiendPure~
Shadow Fiend
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
45% · 133 games51% · 641 game
Tinybzm
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderAce
50% · 291 game50% · 195 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
45% · 553 games55% · 502 games
Shadow DemonAri
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskBoxi
45% · 529 games58% · 261 game
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Game 2prediction missed16:32
Team Liquid 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
49% · 198 games47% · 206 games
MuertaPure~
Muerta
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
49% · 167 games47% · 170 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
50% · 245 games54% · 186 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Phoenix
PhoenixtOfu
45% · 149 games51% · 246 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
46% · 120 games63% · 71 game
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 63%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2