Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
Snapfiresignature
Era · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Xibbe · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Bor@nija · 6 games
Void Spiritsignature
Bor@nija · 6 games
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 5 games
Rubick
Era · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
Bane
Peksu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
456 picks · 297 bans
Queen of Pain
414 picks · 522 bans
Weaver
372 picks · 542 bans
Mars
358 picks · 504 bans
Kunkka
291 picks · 483 bans
Spirit Breaker
268 picks · 499 bans
Wraith King
255 picks · 342 bans
Snapfire
248 picks · 106 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)14% vs 29%
Hero pool strength56% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:20
Alliance 46%Into The Breach 54%
The model gave 54% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:08.
Game 2prediction missed39:38
Alliance 46%Into The Breach 54%
The model gave 54% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Alliance in 49:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 54%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2