?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.

Neon Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 20 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Enryu · 17 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 16 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Mikoto · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 12 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 12 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Enryu · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
460 picks · 301 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
423 picks · 525 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
375 picks · 553 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 512 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
293 picks · 493 bans
51%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
270 picks · 508 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
256 picks · 347 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
254 picks · 111 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total62% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:13
Fnatic 62%Neon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 38:38.
Game 2prediction missed34:21
Fnatic 62%Neon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 35:15.
Game 3prediction missed49:12
Fnatic 62%Neon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 48:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 62%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3