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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 9 games
78%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Snapfire
Snapfire
Jhocam · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Poloson · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Jhocam · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Jhocam · 3 games
33%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Meracle · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
inYourdreaM · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
462 picks · 301 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
423 picks · 527 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
373 picks · 556 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 510 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
292 picks · 493 bans
51%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
270 picks · 509 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
256 picks · 347 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
254 picks · 112 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
Polaris Esports 57%Nigma Galaxy SEA 43%
The model gave 57% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 42:07.
Game 2prediction correct21:13
Polaris Esports 57%Nigma Galaxy SEA 43%
The model gave 57% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 38:14.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 57%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2