Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
RSGwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Army Geniuses
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 11 games
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 10 games
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 8 games
Snapfire
Lym- · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Weaversignature
Varizh · 7 games
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
469 picks · 319 bans
Queen of Pain
430 picks · 531 bans
Weaver
380 picks · 575 bans
Mars
370 picks · 520 bans
Kunkka
301 picks · 496 bans
Spirit Breaker
290 picks · 526 bans
Wraith King
258 picks · 345 bans
Snapfire
257 picks · 119 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% RSG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:50
RSG 40%Army Geniuses 60%
The model gave 60% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 58:16.
Game 2prediction correct26:40
RSG 40%Army Geniuses 60%
The model gave 60% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 37:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 60%
Series resultRSG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2