Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ybb Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phoenix Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 8 games
Bane
Lwwnb · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Shining · 5 games
Dark Willow
Helios · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Helios · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
zone- · 3 games
Tusk
Helios · 3 games
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
471 picks · 319 bans
Queen of Pain
432 picks · 532 bans
Weaver
381 picks · 576 bans
Mars
369 picks · 521 bans
Kunkka
301 picks · 498 bans
Spirit Breaker
290 picks · 528 bans
Wraith King
260 picks · 345 bans
Snapfire
256 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 33%
Hero pool strength62% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:22
Phoenix Gaming 42%Ybb Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 1:02:54.
Game 2prediction correct20:33
Phoenix Gaming 42%Ybb Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 43:11.
Game 3prediction correct34:43
Phoenix Gaming 42%Ybb Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 59:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 58%
Series resultYbb Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3