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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
78%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
77%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 24 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 22 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 22 games
64%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 44 games
59%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 27 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 27 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 25 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
627 picks · 997 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 445 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 502 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
451 picks · 1068 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
450 picks · 286 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 625 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 588 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
409 picks · 499 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 66%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 6
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:36
Tundra Esports 48%Team Liquid 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
44% · 115 games49% · 99 games
PhoenixAce
Phoenix
Clinkz
ClinkzPure~
55% · 85 games51% · 114 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
47% · 126 games60% · 106 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
47% · 317 games46% · 312 games
JakirotOfu
Jakiro
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
63% · 81 game45% · 93 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct15:34
Tundra Esports 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
49% · 85 games60% · 108 games
BristlebackmiCKe
Bristleback
Kez
KezPure~
46% · 91 game55% · 168 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
38% · 119 games50% · 95 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
48% · 188 games49% · 139 games
Shadow DemontOfu
Shadow Demon
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
52% · 70 games56% · 43 games
LionBoxi
Lion
Game 3prediction correct12:40
Tundra Esports 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
45% · 397 games51% · 218 games
WindrangermiCKe
Windranger
Muerta
MuertaPure~
49% · 180 games51% · 325 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Doom
Doom33
48% · 133 games51% · 105 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
51% · 112 games48% · 259 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneWhitemon
56% · 129 games51% · 44 games
Treant ProtectortOfu
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3