Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TTideWithStoutloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Lowskill · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Qupe · 6 games
Razoroften banned
TheBloodySky · 6 games
TideWithStout
Death Prophetoften banned
Copy · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 3 games
Snapfire
Rein · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Clockwerk
Rein · 1 game
Disruptor
Rein · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
537 picks · 364 bans
Queen of Pain
470 picks · 582 bans
Weaver
429 picks · 689 bans
Mars
427 picks · 611 bans
Kunkka
347 picks · 554 bans
Spirit Breaker
337 picks · 571 bans
Snapfire
326 picks · 158 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% TideWithStout
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% TideWithStout
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTideWithStout · 63%
Series resultIVY 2:1
Series predictionmissed