BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO5
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:3series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:3
TOTeam Orcawin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Team Orca
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
537 picks · 365 bans
Queen of Pain
472 picks · 578 bans
Weaver
426 picks · 690 bans
Mars
422 picks · 613 bans
Kunkka
347 picks · 549 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
320 picks · 158 bans
Wraith King
280 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Lilgun
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team Orca
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
Lilgun 43%Team Orca 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Orca — the game was taken by Team Orca in 45:44.
Game 2prediction correct54:58
Lilgun 43%Team Orca 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Orca — the game was taken by Team Orca in 1:11:29.
Game 3prediction correct13:38
Lilgun 43%Team Orca 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Orca — the game was taken by Team Orca in 33:33.
Game 4prediction correct30:28
Lilgun 43%Team Orca 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Orca — the game was taken by Team Orca in 58:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Orca · 57%
Series resultTeam Orca 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game4 of 4