Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Ice eSportsloss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Happy Sealswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Ice eSports
Jakiro
Sonic · 5 games
Bane
Sonic · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 3 games
Tiny
Sonic · 3 games
Dawnbreaker
Shoe · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Disruptor
Sonic · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
536 picks · 365 bans
Queen of Pain
470 picks · 571 bans
Mars
424 picks · 609 bans
Weaver
422 picks · 695 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 543 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
318 picks · 159 bans
Wraith King
278 picks · 366 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Black Ice eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:22
Black Ice eSports 65%Happy Seals 35%
The model gave 65% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 15:12.
Game 2prediction missed27:55
Black Ice eSports 65%Happy Seals 35%
The model gave 65% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 45:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Ice eSports · 65%
Series resultHappy Seals 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2