Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Ice eSportsloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGLet's Gowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Ice eSports
Bane
Sonic · 3 games
Jakiro
Sonic · 3 games
Tiny
Sonic · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Lich
Shoe · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Venomanceroften banned
Shoe · 2 games
Let's Go
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
536 picks · 363 bans
Queen of Pain
468 picks · 568 bans
Mars
423 picks · 607 bans
Weaver
422 picks · 695 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 538 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 159 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 364 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Black Ice eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:24
Black Ice eSports 54%Let's Go 46%
The model gave 54% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Let's Go in 29:06.
Game 2prediction correct36:21
Black Ice eSports 54%Let's Go 46%
The model gave 54% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 31:54.
Game 3prediction missed32:43
Black Ice eSports 54%Let's Go 46%
The model gave 54% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Let's Go in 46:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Ice eSports · 54%
Series resultLet's Go 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3