Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TTideWithStoutwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
TideWithStout
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Snapfire
Rein · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Rein · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 363 bans
Queen of Pain
470 picks · 569 bans
Mars
425 picks · 604 bans
Weaver
423 picks · 698 bans
Kunkka
354 picks · 534 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 158 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 364 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:21
Monaspa 55%TideWithStout 45%
The model gave 55% on Monaspa — the game was taken by TideWithStout in 35:10.
Game 2prediction missed40:34
Monaspa 55%TideWithStout 45%
The model gave 55% on Monaspa — the game was taken by TideWithStout in 47:11.
Game 3prediction missed12:32
Monaspa 55%TideWithStout 45%
The model gave 55% on Monaspa — the game was taken by TideWithStout in 28:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 55%
Series resultTideWithStout 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3