Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
DGG Esportsloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Lowskill · 6 games
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 6 games
Linaoften banned
Copy · 5 games
Razoroften banned
TheBloodySky · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 5 games
Tiny
Mo13ei · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
539 picks · 367 bans
Queen of Pain
472 picks · 572 bans
Mars
431 picks · 601 bans
Weaver
422 picks · 705 bans
Kunkka
355 picks · 537 bans
Spirit Breaker
341 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
325 picks · 160 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 24%
Hero pool strength56% DGG Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% DGG Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:40
DGG Esports 59%IVY 41%
The model gave 59% on DGG Esports — the game was taken by DGG Esports in 53:29.
Game 2prediction missed7:31
DGG Esports 59%IVY 41%
The model gave 59% on DGG Esports — the game was taken by IVY in 21:32.
Game 3prediction missed23:27
DGG Esports 59%IVY 41%
The model gave 59% on DGG Esports — the game was taken by IVY in 48:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteDGG Esports · 59%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3