?
arrow_backBack to match
GAMERS GALAXY: Invitational Series Dubai 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 7 games
71%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
17%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 5 games
20%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
GH · 5 games
20%

Tundra Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 16 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
62%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
77%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 11 games
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 11 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 9 games
78%
Io
Iooften banned
Sneyking · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
541 picks · 365 bans
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
471 picks · 572 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
431 picks · 600 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
419 picks · 706 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
353 picks · 537 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
341 picks · 572 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
326 picks · 161 bans
48%
Wraith King
Wraith King
277 picks · 360 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:41
Nigma Galaxy 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMiracle-
46% · 295 games54% · 187 games
KunkkaNine
Kunkka
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritiLTW
51% · 205 games49% · 134 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMinD_ContRoL
44% · 83 games41% · 91 game
Legion Commander33
Legion Commander
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
54% · 118 games51% · 187 games
Monkey KingSaksa
Monkey King
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
56% · 106 games52% · 208 games
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct22:36
Nigma Galaxy 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaMiracle-
48% · 199 games52% · 192 games
LunaSkiter
Luna
Tiny
TinyiLTW
55% · 170 games49% · 94 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerMinD_ContRoL
59% · 86 games44% · 150 games
InvokerNine
Invoker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKuroKy
44% · 149 games48% · 183 games
Monkey KingSaksa
Monkey King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
55% · 136 games48% · 121 game
Shadow DemonSneyking
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2