BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Linaoften banned
Bob · 12 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
Bane
RR · 11 games
Batridersignature
Bob · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Tino- · 11 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 9 games
Tiny
Tino- · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 362 bans
Queen of Pain
473 picks · 570 bans
Mars
432 picks · 599 bans
Weaver
416 picks · 708 bans
Kunkka
351 picks · 540 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
327 picks · 161 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% T1
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:24
T1 80%Execration 20%
The model gave 80% on T1 — the game was taken by Execration in 33:31.
Game 2prediction missed17:28
T1 80%Execration 20%
The model gave 80% on T1 — the game was taken by Execration in 34:14.
Game 3prediction missed42:10
T1 80%Execration 20%
The model gave 80% on T1 — the game was taken by Execration in 29:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 80%
Series resultT1 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3