Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionLGLet's Gowin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
77:3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Let's Go
No games played over 6 months.
7:3
Tidehunteroften banned
sheepsticked · 2 games
Iooften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Marsoften banned
sheepsticked · 1 game
Phoenix
Skyward · 1 game
Snapfire
Skyward · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 361 bans
Queen of Pain
474 picks · 570 bans
Mars
436 picks · 597 bans
Weaver
416 picks · 713 bans
Kunkka
352 picks · 541 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 161 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% 7:3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% 7:3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:21
Let's Go 39%7:3 61%
The model gave 61% on 7:3 — the game was taken by Let's Go in 51:13.
Game 2prediction correct16:30
Let's Go 39%7:3 61%
The model gave 61% on 7:3 — the game was taken by 7:3 in 47:42.
Game 3prediction missed44:16
Let's Go 39%7:3 61%
The model gave 61% on 7:3 — the game was taken by Let's Go in 41:55.
Model check result
Model favorite7:3 · 61%
Series resultLet's Go 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3