Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionMMeiduiyaoloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TSTeam Serpentwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Meiduiyao
No games played over 6 months.
Team Serpent
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 361 bans
Queen of Pain
472 picks · 567 bans
Mars
436 picks · 596 bans
Weaver
415 picks · 713 bans
Kunkka
351 picks · 538 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 161 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Meiduiyao
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Serpent
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:28
Meiduiyao 46%Team Serpent 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Serpent — the game was taken by Meiduiyao in 38:10.
Game 2prediction correct24:39
Meiduiyao 46%Team Serpent 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Serpent — the game was taken by Team Serpent in 37:33.
Game 3prediction correct20:28
Meiduiyao 46%Team Serpent 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Serpent — the game was taken by Team Serpent in 40:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Serpent · 54%
Series resultTeam Serpent 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3