Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Wisla Krakowwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TTideWithStoutloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wisla Krakow
No games played over 6 months.
TideWithStout
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 362 bans
Queen of Pain
473 picks · 569 bans
Mars
439 picks · 593 bans
Weaver
414 picks · 716 bans
Kunkka
351 picks · 535 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 160 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Wisla Krakow
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% TideWithStout
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:34
Wisla Krakow 49%TideWithStout 51%
The model gave 51% on TideWithStout — the game was taken by TideWithStout in 31:16.
Game 2prediction correct15:30
Wisla Krakow 49%TideWithStout 51%
The model gave 51% on TideWithStout — the game was taken by TideWithStout in 28:46.
Game 3prediction correct31:10
Wisla Krakow 49%TideWithStout 51%
The model gave 51% on TideWithStout — the game was taken by TideWithStout in 23:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTideWithStout · 51%
Series resultWisla Krakow 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3