Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Goonsquadwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monaspaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 362 bans
Queen of Pain
473 picks · 569 bans
Mars
439 picks · 593 bans
Weaver
414 picks · 716 bans
Kunkka
351 picks · 535 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 160 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Goonsquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
Goonsquad 60%Monaspa 40%
The model gave 60% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Monaspa in 29:08.
Game 2prediction missed22:0
Goonsquad 60%Monaspa 40%
The model gave 60% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Monaspa in 15:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 60%
Series resultGoonsquad 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2