Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VEVendetta eSportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
No games played over 6 months.
Vendetta eSports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 362 bans
Queen of Pain
473 picks · 569 bans
Mars
439 picks · 593 bans
Weaver
414 picks · 716 bans
Kunkka
351 picks · 535 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 160 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Fusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Vendetta eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteVendetta eSports · 52%
Series resultVendetta eSports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect