GAMERS GALAXY: Invitational Series Dubai 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Banesignature
KuroKy · 7 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
Rubick
GH · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
GH · 5 games
OG
Snapfire
Taiga · 15 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 12 games
Bane
Misha · 11 games
Clinkz
SumaiL · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 9 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 9 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
536 picks · 364 bans
Queen of Pain
475 picks · 571 bans
Mars
441 picks · 594 bans
Weaver
418 picks · 717 bans
Kunkka
351 picks · 538 bans
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 571 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 166 bans
Wraith King
278 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% OG
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total55% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:20
Nigma Galaxy 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyiLTW
Templar Assassinbzm
InvokerMiracle-
RazorYuragi
Outworld DestroyerMinD_ContRoL
MarsATF
ChenKuroKy
Treant ProtectorTaiga
ClockwerkGH
Shadow ShamanChuvash
Game 2prediction missed19:22
Nigma Galaxy 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopteriLTW
Puckbzm
InvokerMiracle-
Troll WarlordYuragi
Legion CommanderMinD_ContRoL
MarsATF
PhoenixGH
Shadow ShamanTaiga
UndyingKuroKy
IoChuvash
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2