GAMERS GALAXY: Invitational Series Dubai 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
TSMwin 1:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Fnaticloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Bane
DuBu · 16 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
Mirana
MoonMeander · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
SabeRLight- · 7 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
538 picks · 361 bans
Queen of Pain
475 picks · 572 bans
Mars
439 picks · 595 bans
Weaver
418 picks · 723 bans
Kunkka
351 picks · 540 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 163 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 355 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:18
TSM 60%Fnatic 40%
The model gave 60% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 33:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 60%
Series resultTSM 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1