Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Ice eSportswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Ice eSports
Bane
Sonic · 3 games
Tiny
Sonic · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Lich
Shoe · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
TiltedBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
546 picks · 365 bans
Queen of Pain
473 picks · 572 bans
Mars
441 picks · 590 bans
Weaver
418 picks · 736 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 539 bans
Spirit Breaker
344 picks · 575 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
280 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Black Ice eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:9
Black Ice eSports 55%TiltedBoys 45%
The model gave 55% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 30:31.
Game 2prediction correct14:5
Black Ice eSports 55%TiltedBoys 45%
The model gave 55% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 7:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Ice eSports · 55%
Series resultBlack Ice eSports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2