Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Corporationloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
77:3win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Corporation
No games played over 6 months.
7:3
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
546 picks · 365 bans
Queen of Pain
473 picks · 568 bans
Mars
440 picks · 588 bans
Weaver
418 picks · 736 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 538 bans
Spirit Breaker
344 picks · 574 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 171 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Evil Corporation
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Evil Corporation
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:20
Evil Corporation 54%7:3 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Corporation — the game was taken by Evil Corporation in 47:54.
Game 2prediction missed21:35
Evil Corporation 54%7:3 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Corporation — the game was taken by 7:3 in 38:08.
Game 3prediction missed24:34
Evil Corporation 54%7:3 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Corporation — the game was taken by 7:3 in 41:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Corporation · 54%
Series result7:3 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3