Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CHILLAXwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Bane
Kaori · 26 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 20 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 16 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 15 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Lorenof · 14 games
Void Spirit
Shisui · 13 games
Linaoften banned
Shisui · 12 games
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
549 picks · 367 bans
Queen of Pain
474 picks · 571 bans
Mars
441 picks · 590 bans
Weaver
417 picks · 744 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 538 bans
Spirit Breaker
344 picks · 573 bans
Snapfire
342 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% CHILLAX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:30
Team Empire 62%CHILLAX 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Empire — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 25:03.
Game 2prediction correct25:6
Team Empire 62%CHILLAX 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 22:05.
Game 3prediction missed21:35
Team Empire 62%CHILLAX 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Empire — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 37:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 62%
Series resultCHILLAX 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3