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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 8 games
13%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
20%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Antares · 5 games
20%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 4 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 4 games
50%

B8 Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Dendi · 27 games
41%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 24 games
63%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 23 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 21 game
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dendi · 21 game
19%
Bane
Bane
Sammyboy · 19 games
47%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 18 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 18 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
549 picks · 367 bans
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
474 picks · 573 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
440 picks · 591 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
417 picks · 746 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
349 picks · 538 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
345 picks · 573 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
344 picks · 172 bans
45%
Wraith King
Wraith King
278 picks · 353 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 16%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:12
X3 50%B8 Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by X3 in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingnesfeer
54% · 72 games39% · 14 games
Bristlebackv1olent-
Bristleback
Pugna
PugnaNattyNarwhal
39% · 10 games53% · 67 games
TinyDendi
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordMastery
43% · 17 games57% · 34 games
MagnuspJonn
Magnus
Riki
Rikivelheor
43% · 6 games
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
39% · 10 games
Game 2prediction missed30:31
X3 52%B8 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
59% · 89 games53% · 11 games
SniperDendi
Sniper
Tiny
TinyNattyNarwhal
55% · 64 games49% · 105 games
Death Prophetv1olent-
Death Prophet
Underlord
UnderlordMastery
26% · 11 games50% · 104 games
KunkkapJonn
Kunkka
Pugna
Pugnavelheor
47% · 7 games
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
46% · 49 games
Game 3prediction correct39:17
X3 50%B8 Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingnesfeer
49% · 220 games55% · 163 games
Templar AssassinDendi
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawMastery
48% · 149 games47% · 179 games
Ember Spiritv1olent-
Ember Spirit
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
51% · 185 games43% · 371 game
MarspJonn
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
50% · 134 games
Riki
Rikivelheor
67% · 25 games
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 51%
Series resultX3 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3