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BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 22 games
68%
Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Enryu · 20 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 15 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Mikoto · 15 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Unknown- · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 13 games
54%

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
31%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 12 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
17%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bob · 11 games
64%
Bane
Bane
RR · 10 games
40%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Tino- · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
13%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
556 picks · 374 bans
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
484 picks · 584 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
455 picks · 613 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
430 picks · 780 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
365 picks · 181 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
353 picks · 551 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
346 picks · 578 bans
53%
Wraith King
Wraith King
291 picks · 356 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 35%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total55% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:33
Neon Esports 52%Execration 48%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKarma丶
48% · 252 games59% · 138 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Death Prophet
Death ProphetEnryu
44% · 255 games46% · 136 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritJing
47% · 132 games55% · 147 games
PangolierTino-
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickChuaN
46% · 174 games48% · 207 games
GrimstrokeShanks
Grimstroke
60% · 185 games
BaneRR
Bane
Game 2prediction correct39:20
Neon Esports 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerKarma丶
45% · 48 games56% · 129 games
Queen of PainBob
Queen of Pain
Doom
DoomEnryu
55% · 108 games46% · 54 games
Troll WarlordPalos
Troll Warlord
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJing
53% · 249 games46% · 79 games
Spirit BreakerTino-
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkChuaN
40% · 111 games52% · 211 games
SnapfireShanks
Snapfire
54% · 43 games
UndyingRR
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2