SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO5
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 3:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Team MagMaloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
Marssignature
Srf · 10 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
Ursaoften banned
Another · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Another · 8 games
Banesignature
Dy · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 7 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
555 picks · 373 bans
Queen of Pain
483 picks · 582 bans
Mars
453 picks · 612 bans
Weaver
428 picks · 779 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 181 bans
Kunkka
352 picks · 551 bans
Spirit Breaker
346 picks · 578 bans
Wraith King
290 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total66% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:20
Xtreme Gaming 66%Team MagMa 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:48.
Game 2prediction correct32:17
Xtreme Gaming 66%Team MagMa 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:31.
Game 3prediction correct39:19
Xtreme Gaming 66%Team MagMa 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 66%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3