Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Bane
Kaori · 25 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 19 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 17 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 15 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Lorenof · 14 games
Void Spirit
Shisui · 13 games
Linaoften banned
Shisui · 12 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
550 picks · 371 bans
Queen of Pain
482 picks · 580 bans
Mars
449 picks · 605 bans
Weaver
425 picks · 777 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 176 bans
Kunkka
348 picks · 548 bans
Spirit Breaker
344 picks · 577 bans
Wraith King
289 picks · 348 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 20%
Hero pool strength54% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:6
Team Empire 61%Alliance 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 30:28.
Game 2prediction correct26:13
Team Empire 61%Alliance 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 32:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 61%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2