SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Banesignature
y` · 23 games
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
Tidehuntersignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xiao8 · 15 games
Iosignature
XinQ · 13 games
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 12 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
544 picks · 373 bans
Queen of Pain
477 picks · 567 bans
Mars
446 picks · 604 bans
Weaver
427 picks · 785 bans
Snapfire
362 picks · 170 bans
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 571 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 544 bans
Wraith King
284 picks · 342 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 59%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total82% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:23
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:53.
Game 2prediction missed22:26
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 31:28.
Game 3prediction missed10:38
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 29:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 82%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3