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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 72 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 38 games
66%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 38 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
78%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 21 game
67%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 20 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
636 picks · 998 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 446 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 638 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 487 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
447 picks · 1050 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
443 picks · 280 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 586 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 516 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:29
MOUZ 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
52% · 374 games51% · 409 games
BeastmasterPure~
Beastmaster
Kez
KezCrystallis
52% · 83 games50% · 475 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
47% · 435 games51% · 294 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
43% · 403 games53% · 137 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonyamich
53% · 250 games49% · 230 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed32:24
MOUZ 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
45% · 392 games52% · 270 games
AbaddonPure~
Abaddon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMidOne
50% · 289 games33% · 86 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackBOOM
58% · 257 games51% · 428 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
54% · 171 game48% · 159 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinyamich
57% · 81 game53% · 247 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct8:29
MOUZ 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
42% · 247 games49% · 308 games
MuertaPure~
Muerta
Bristleback
BristlebackBOOM
50% · 199 games50% · 672 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
54% · 298 games56% · 102 games
Largo33
Largo
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
44% · 323 games49% · 265 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Tusk
Tuskyamich
46% · 435 games60% · 155 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3