Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs predictionNMNo Monkey Businesswin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CHILLAXloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Monkey Business
Shadow Demon
illusion · 3 games
Bane
antoha · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Egor · 2 games
Axe
MieRo · 1 game
Clockwerk
antoha · 1 game
Disruptor
illusion · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 1 game
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
548 picks · 377 bans
Queen of Pain
480 picks · 573 bans
Mars
450 picks · 615 bans
Weaver
431 picks · 808 bans
Snapfire
366 picks · 172 bans
Spirit Breaker
345 picks · 576 bans
Kunkka
343 picks · 547 bans
Wraith King
284 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:11
No Monkey Business 37%CHILLAX 63%
The model gave 63% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 29:09.
Game 2prediction missed20:13
No Monkey Business 37%CHILLAX 63%
The model gave 63% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 26:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 63%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2