BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lion
boombell · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 10 games
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 9 games
Medusaoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 8 games
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 7 games
Polaris Esports
Lionsignature
cml · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Force · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
Banesignature
cml · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 9 games
Mirana
Boomy · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
547 picks · 377 bans
Queen of Pain
478 picks · 572 bans
Mars
450 picks · 616 bans
Weaver
430 picks · 809 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 172 bans
Spirit Breaker
344 picks · 575 bans
Kunkka
343 picks · 545 bans
Wraith King
283 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 81%
Hero pool strength58% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total76% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:39
Motivate.Trust Gaming 35%Polaris Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainFearless
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Baneboombell
PangolierMac
44% · 65 games
Night StalkerForce
45% · 78 games
Ogre Magicml
48% · 146 games
GrimstrokeBoomy
Game 2prediction correct
Motivate.Trust Gaming 24%Polaris Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 76%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2