BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
T1loss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TOTeam Orcawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Team Orca
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
546 picks · 374 bans
Queen of Pain
477 picks · 570 bans
Mars
448 picks · 616 bans
Weaver
429 picks · 808 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 171 bans
Kunkka
342 picks · 543 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 574 bans
Wraith King
282 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:28
T1 70%Team Orca 30%
The model gave 70% on T1 — the game was taken by Team Orca in 49:05.
Game 2prediction missed12:22
T1 70%Team Orca 30%
The model gave 70% on T1 — the game was taken by Team Orca in 36:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 70%
Series resultTeam Orca 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2