Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 1:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:0
SSharkBoysloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Marsoften banned
Frank · 5 games
Disruptor
Mjz · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Axe
Frank · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
SharkBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
548 picks · 374 bans
Queen of Pain
477 picks · 570 bans
Mars
448 picks · 619 bans
Weaver
429 picks · 811 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 172 bans
Kunkka
342 picks · 544 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 574 bans
Wraith King
282 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% SharkBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharkBoys · 66%
Series resultMad Kings 1:0
Series predictionmissed