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SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EHOMEloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
70%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Another · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 9 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 9 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 7 games
86%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Another · 7 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Pyw · 6 games
83%

EHOME

Bane
Bane
zzq · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 6 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
60%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
zzq · 5 games
80%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
550 picks · 376 bans
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
477 picks · 569 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 621 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
430 picks · 813 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 171 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
343 picks · 543 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 576 bans
53%
Wraith King
Wraith King
281 picks · 342 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
Xtreme Gaming 55%EHOME 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinylou
46% · 98 games53% · 57 games
Nature's Prophetzeal
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPaparazi
50% · 206 games57% · 159 games
Weavershiro
Weaver
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritELeVeN
54% · 28 games44% · 253 games
Void Spirit7e
Void Spirit
Tusk
TuskPyw
42% · 110 games54% · 113 games
Spirit BreakerpLAnet
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDy
53% · 156 games45% · 16 games
Dawnbreakerzzq
Dawnbreaker
Game 2prediction correct19:13
Xtreme Gaming 58%EHOME 42%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kinglou
48% · 199 games46% · 47 games
Drow Rangershiro
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPaparazi
53% · 185 games50% · 226 games
Queen of Pain7e
Queen of Pain
Necrophos
NecrophosELeVeN
43% · 11 games53% · 176 games
Tidehunterzeal
Tidehunter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPyw
45% · 163 games56% · 99 games
Treant ProtectorpLAnet
Treant Protector
Abaddon
AbaddonDy
50% · 142 games49% · 152 games
Dark Willowzzq
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 64%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2